Eskom has indicated that the most severe loadshedding expected for this year’s winter season will be Stage 5, with the power utility aiming predominantly to maintain outages at lower stages.
What is the forecast for loadshedding in winter 2024?
Eskom projects that during Winter 2024, from April to August, the likelihood of loadshedding will primarily be at Stage 2.
In the worst-case scenario, with unplanned outages peaking at 17,000MW, loadshedding could escalate to Stage 5.
This marks a notable improvement compared to the previous year, where there were concerns about reaching Stage 8.
How has Eskom improved its operations?
Over the past year, Eskom has made substantial strides in enhancing its operational efficiency.
Unplanned losses have been reduced by 9%, and unit breakdowns have decreased by 19%.
These improvements have contributed to a more stable and reliable power supply, evidenced by no outages occurring in April and an ongoing period of 30 days without loadshedding.
Eskom is targeting further reductions in unplanned losses by 1,700MW and aims to implement around 400MW of additional demand-side management initiatives.
These efforts are intended to help manage the increased electricity demand typically seen during the winter months.
What should consumers expect this winter?
For the upcoming winter season, Eskom expects that in its planned-for case scenario, where unplanned outages are kept at 15,500MW,
South Africa could experience up to 50 days of loadshedding at Stage 1 or 2.
However, current system performance suggests that the utility is on track to maintain unplanned outages at around 14,000MW, potentially resulting in only five days of Stage 1 loadshedding.
