Petrol prices for April 2024 are forecasted to rise, affecting motorists nationwide.
UPDATE: On Thursday, 28 March 2024, the Department of Minerals confirmed the official fuel price adjustments for April 2024. See the official adjustments below.
Early petrol price forecast offers negative outlook for April 2024
Central Energy Fund (CEF) data, reflective of the period up to 21 March 2024, points to a divergence in the pricing trends for petrol versus diesel and illuminating paraffin.
Petrol grades, both 95 and 93, are under the shadow of an under-recovery, at -R0.26944 and -R0.25601 per litre, respectively.
This suggests an upward revision in petrol prices, driven by costs that exceed current selling prices.
On the flip side, diesel and illuminating paraffin are experiencing over-recovery, with diesel 0.05% at +R0.28210 and diesel 0.005% at +R0.33555 per litre, and illuminating paraffin at +R0.37286 per litre.
This indicates potential price reductions for these fuels, as their selling prices surpass the procurement and distribution costs indicated by the Basic Fuel Price (BFP).
For motorists and consumers, these adjustments could mean a mixed bag of effects on their budgets. Those primarily using petrol might need to prepare for higher expenses, while diesel users could benefit from slight relief in fuel costs.
Here’s a closer look at the over/under-recovery rates captured by the Central Energy Fund (CEF), as of Thursday, 14 March 2024:
Fuel type | Official | Adjustment on 21/03/2024 | Adjustment on 14/03/2024 | Adjustment on 08/03/2024 |
Petrol 95 | -67c (inland) -60c (coastal) | -26.9c | -10.1c | -36.2c |
Petrol 93 | -65c (inland) -58c (coastal) | -25.6c | -8.6c | -34.8c |
Diesel 0.05% | -3c (inland) +4c (coastal) | +28.2c | +32.29c | -0.49c |
Diesel 0.005% | +2c (inland) +9c (coastal) | +33.5c | +36.3c | +1.02c |
The exact extent of the price increase will depend on a variety of factors, including changes in global oil prices and the Rand’s performance against the US dollar in the intervening period.
While the exact increase in fuel prices remains to be seen, the early indicators from the CEF provide valuable insight into the likely direction of price adjustments.
Motorists and industry stakeholders would do well to monitor these developments closely, as they could have substantial implications for budgeting and financial planning in the coming month.
What goes into the final retail price of fuel in South Africa?
Determining the final retail price of petrol in South Africa relies heavily on the rand’s performance in currency markets and oil price movements.
Using this information, the CEF can formulate BFP estimates which, in essence, offer South African importers a snapshot into the cost of buying petrol from an international refinery, transporting the product and ensuring it against possible losses at sea and on land.
However, before the retail price of petrol is finalised at petrol stations, several additional costs are included in the BFP:
Government levies
- IP tracer levy (reimbursement to the oil industry for buying IP tracer dye and injecting it into IP to curtail the mixing of IP and diesel)
- General Fuel levy (tax levied by the government)
- Slate levy (to finance the cumulative under-recovery of the industry)
- RAF levy (to compensate for people involved in road crashes and accidents)
- Petroleum products levy (reimbursement to the pipeline users for the applicable NERSA tariff on transporting fuel through the pipeline)
Additional costs
- Wholesale margin (markup to the price of a product to account for wholesaling costs)
- Service cost recoveries
- Storage, handling and delivery costs
- Distribution costs
- Dealers margin (commission to the fuel pump dealers for retail operation)
- Zone differential (applicable to inland regions)
- Customs and excise duty
Monthly adjustments to fuel prices are made on the first Wednesday of each month based on these factors. The next changes will take effect on Wednesday, 3 April 2024.
Disclaimer: The petrol price forecasts provided in this article are based on speculative data and should be considered as such. The information has been sourced from the Central Energy Fund, and while we strive to present the most accurate and up-to-date information, Swisher Post does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the data. Prices can fluctuate due to a variety of factors beyond our control, including but not limited to changes in international oil prices, currency exchange rates, and government taxes. Therefore, Swisher Post shall not be held liable for any discrepancies or differences in the actual prices. Readers are advised to consult official sources for the most current petrol price information.