According to former Eskom CEO Brian Molefe, things could get worse at Eskom and before we know it, South Africa may be plunged into Stage 6 loadshedding.
Here’s why Molefe thinks Stage 6 loadshedding is a possibility
Speaking to SABC News, Molefe dissected recent developments that took shape at Megawatt Park over the past week. Initially, Eskom had planned to reduce rotational blackouts by Monday, in anticipation of seven power generation units coming back to feed the grid.
However, neither of these units were returned to service for reasons that still remain unknown. In the view of the former Eskom CEO, this was a great cause for concern, not only because this resulted in the implementation of stage 4 loadshedding, but that not a single unit from the seven that were commissioned for maintenance and repairs had been reconnected to the grid.
“How did management arrive at a conclusion that it was possible for the units to have come back yesterday (Monday) morning? and if the units did not come back yesterday morning I would have expected them to say, ‘well, at least three of them came back’, or, ‘at least two of them came back,’ or, ‘at least one of them came back,” he said.
Moreover, Molefe warned of a possible escalation in loadshedding, from stage 4 to 6, if any of the remaining power generation units breakdown this week.
“If one mistake happens between now and Friday, we are possibly going to stage 6 loadshedding between now and Friday. It’s possible, if we lose another unit,” he warned.
Understanding the stages of loadshedding
In its statement, Eskom explained that the escalation to stage 4 loadshedding was necessitated by its inability to return the seven units to service, on top of the fact that “a generating unit at Arnot power station tripped on Monday.”
With total breakdowns amounting to more than 14 800MW and planned maintenance totalling 5 579MW not feeding into the grid, stage 4 loadshedding will remain in place until Friday morning. Thereafter, it is hoped that the country will be moved to stage 2 rotational blackouts.
Currently, Eskom has eight stages of loadshedding, and these risk levels are necessary to replenish the strained power grid. At stage 4, Eskom sheds 4 000MW from the power grid by applying two-to-four-hour rotational power cuts up to 12 times over a period of four days.
Eskom-supplied households in Johannesburg, for example, endure four-hour blackouts up to 12 times over a period of eight days. While stage 8 is, perhaps, the worst things can get, Eskom can still apply emergency means to implement loadshedding outside of a schedule if the need arises.
Here is a breakdown of loadshedding for each of the eight stages:
- Stage 1 load shedding means that up to 1000MW of capacity needs to be shed. Consumers can expect to be shed up to 3 times over a four-day period for two hours at a time, or 3 times over an eight-day period for four hours at a time.
- Stage 2 load shedding means that up to 2000MW of capacity needs to be shed. Consumers can expect to be shed up to 6 times over a four-day period for two hours at a time, or 6 times over an eight-day period for four hours at a time.
- Stage 3 load shedding means that up to 3000MW of capacity needs to be shed. Consumers can expect to be shed up to 9 times over a four-day period for two hours at a time, or 9 times over an eight-day period for four hours at a time.
- Stage 4 load shedding means that up to 4000MW of capacity needs to be shed. Consumers can expect to be shed up to 12 times over a four-day period for two hours at a time, or 12 times over an eight-day period for four hours at a time.
- Stage 5 load shedding means that up to 5000MW of capacity needs to be shed. Consumers can expect to be shed up to 12 times over a four-day period: • 9 times for 2 hours • 3 times for 4 hours
- Stage 6 load shedding means that up to 6000MW of capacity needs to be shed. Consumers can expect to be shed up to 12 times over a four-day period: • 6 times for 2 hours • 6 times for 4 hours
- Stage 7 load shedding means that up to 7000MW of capacity needs to be shed. Consumers can expect to be shed up to 12 times over a four-day period: • 3 times for 2 hours • 9 times for 4 hours
- Stage 8 load shedding means that up to 8000MW of capacity needs to be shed. Consumers can expect to be shed up to 12 times over a four-day period for four hours at a time.