Motorists could be in line for a third consecutive drop in petrol prices on Wednesday, 5 October 2022, if basic fuel price indicators are anything to go by.
Petrol price: Here’s how much a litre may cost from Wednesday, 5 October 2022
Tensions in international politics, influenced mainly by the ongoing Ukraine war, have kept a strain on the movements of brent crude oil prices in the market.
Quoted in a Business Tech article, TreasuryOne senior dealer Andre Botha suggested that while petrol prices may drop in October 2022, diesel will likely suffer an increase due to “the lack of supply, as well as the current energy crisis in the Eurozone as the winter approaches.”
“Diesel is used in generating electricity as well as being the preferred fuel for machinery for production. With the market scrambling for diesel surety, supply is king, and suppliers are selling diesel at a premium due to the high demand,” he added.
In the end, the final determination of the petrol price increase/drop for October 2022 will rest in the hands of the Department of Energy in an official press release expected on Monday, 3 October 2022.
Taking into consideration the CEF’s latest fuel price estimations, published on Thursday, 29 September 2022, this is how much a litre of fuel may cost from Wednesday, 5 October 2022
PLEASE NOTE: The petrol price estimations listed above are speculative and likely to be affected by daily oil prices and currency fluctuations. To determine the price per litre estimation, we used the BFP estimation from the CEF’s latest daily analysis, along with Shell’s most recent petrol price update, which lists a detailed breakdown of the levies, taxes and other costs included in the final retail price of fuel in South Africa.
Inland
TYPE | PRICE (p/l) | CHANGE |
Petrol 95 | R22.36 | -R0.89 |
Petrol 93 | R22.95 | -R1.02 |
Diesel 0.05% | R24.06 | +R0.10 |
Diesel 0.005% | R24.31 | +R0.15 |
Coastal
TYPE | PRICE (p/l) | CHANGE |
Petrol 95 | R21.71 | -R0.89 |
Petrol 93 | R21.41 | -R1.02 |
Diesel 0.05% | R23.41 | +R0.10 |
Diesel 0.005% | R23.67 | +R0.15 |
What goes into the final retail price of fuel in South Africa?
Determining the final retail price of petrol in South Africa relies heavily on the rand’s performance in currency markets and oil price movements. Using this information, the CEF can formulate basic fuel price (BFP) estimates which, in essence, offer South African importers a snapshot into the cost of buying petrol from an international refinery, transporting the product and ensuring it against possible losses at sea and on land.
However, before the retail price of petrol is finalised at petrol stations, several additional costs are included in the BFP:
Government levies
- IP tracer levy (reimbursement to the oil industry for buying IP tracer dye and injecting it into IP to curtail the mixing of IP and diesel)
- General Fuel levy (tax levied by the government)
- Slate levy (to finance the cumulative under-recovery of the industry)
- RAF levy (to compensate for people involved in road crashes and accidents)
- Petroleum products levy (reimbursement to the pipeline users for the applicable NERSA tariff on transporting fuel through the pipeline)
Additional costs
- Wholesale margin (markup to the price of a product to account for wholesaling costs)
- Service cost recoveries
- Storage, handling and delivery costs
- Distribution costs
- Dealers margin (commission to the fuel pump dealers for retail operation)
- Zone differential (applicable to inland regions)
- Customs and excise duty
Petrol price adjustments are generally made on the first Wednesday of every month by the Department of Energy.