The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) has released its predictions for seat allocations in Parliament following the 2024 South African elections.
How Parliament could look after the 2024 SA elections, according to CSIR
According to their analysis, the African National Congress (ANC) is expected to secure 160 seats, a substantial decrease from the 230 seats they held after the 2019 elections.
This reduction spotlights the ANC’s declining support amid ongoing challenges and controversies.
The Democratic Alliance (DA) is projected to gain slightly, moving from 84 seats in 2019 to 87 seats. This modest increase indicates some growth in their voter base but not a major shift in their parliamentary presence.
A notable newcomer, the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, is predicted to secure 58 seats, making a significant entry into Parliament. This suggests that the party, spearheaded by former president Jacob Zuma, has resonated with a considerable portion of the electorate.
The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), known for their vocal and radical stance, are expected to experience a slight decline, dropping from 44 seats in 2019 to 38 seats. This could indicate a plateau in their growth or a shift in voter priorities.
The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) is projected to increase their representation from 14 seats to 17 seats, showing a resurgence in its traditional strongholds.
Meanwhile, the Patriotic Alliance (PA) is predicted to enter Parliament with 9 seats, marking a new presence in the legislative body.
Other parties like the Freedom Front Plus (VFP) are expected to see a reduction from 10 seats to 6, while newcomers such as ACTIONSA are predicted to secure 5 seats.
The African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP), United Democratic Movement (UDM), and other smaller parties are projected to maintain or slightly alter their current seat counts, reflecting ongoing stability in their respective voter bases.
How political parties are allocated seats in Parliament
In South Africa, the allocation of seats in Parliament is determined through a proportional representation system.
This means that the number of seats a party receives is directly related to the percentage of votes they secure in the national election.
The system aims to ensure that the composition of Parliament accurately reflects the will of the electorate.
Here’s how the process works:
- Voting and Counting: During the elections, voters cast their ballots for the party of their choice. These votes are then counted and tallied to determine the total number of votes each party received.
- Seat Allocation: The total number of votes is divided by the number of seats in Parliament (400 seats in the National Assembly). This calculation determines the number of votes required to secure one seat, known as the quota.
- Proportional Distribution: Each party’s total vote count is divided by the quota to determine the number of seats they are allocated. If a party secures enough votes for more than one quota, they receive multiple seats. Any remaining seats are distributed based on the largest remainder until all seats are filled.
- Representation: Candidates from each party’s list are then assigned to the seats they have won. This ensures that the party’s representation in Parliament mirrors their support among the voters.
The CSIR’s predictions provide a snapshot of potential changes in South Africa’s political landscape, highlighting both new entrants and shifts in voter support for established parties.