South Africa may face the return of rolling blackouts in January 2025, despite Eskom achieving a record-breaking 265 consecutive days without loadshedding. Energy analysts caution that the current improvements in the power system might not withstand the usual surge in demand that accompanies the new year.
Eskom streak of zero loadshedding is coming to an end, energy experts predict
Eskom’s Generation Recovery Plan, launched in March 2023, has been credited for stabilising the grid through structural enhancements to the coal-fired fleet.
This has led to a notable reduction in unplanned outages, with average outages dropping to 12,486MW this month, down from 13,827MW during the same period last year.
According to Eskom’s Power Alert issued on Friday, 13 December 2024, this progress has contributed to a 68% decrease in diesel usage, resulting in year-on-year savings of R16.46 billion.
RelatedPosts
However, experts warn that the stability witnessed during the summer months may falter under the pressure of increased energy consumption in January.
Advisory firm Cresco warned that while the current maintenance strategy and operational improvements have yielded positive results, ageing infrastructure remains a persistent risk.
“The new year will test Eskom’s ability to sustain its progress,” Energy Central noted in its latest report.
“Surges in post-holiday demand, coupled with the ongoing challenges of unplanned outages and unexpected incidents, could strain the power supply.”
The recent Matla Power Station incident, where a high-pressure steam pipe rupture caused Unit 6 to trip, lends credence to doubts experts have over the system’s fragility.
While Eskom has emphasised that there is no evidence of sabotage and the event has had minimal impact on supply, analysts argue that such unforeseen failures expose the vulnerability of the utility’s ageing infrastructure.
Eskom’s summer outlook
In its August 2024 Summer Outlook, Eskom projected a “loadshedding-free summer,” contingent on keeping unplanned outages below 13,000MW.
With the current average at 12,499MW, the utility appears to be meeting this target.
Additionally, Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF) — a key indicator of power station performance — has improved to 62.7% year-to-date, a significant recovery from 55.4% last year.
Eskom’s strategic use of Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs) and increased planned maintenance, which currently removes 7,619MW from the grid, have been critical in managing demand.
However, Cresco warns that the heavy reliance on peaking stations during evening hours could drive up costs if demand surges unexpectedly.
As South Africans prepare for the new year, the risk of rolling blackouts remains real.
Energy experts point to rising consumption, infrastructure vulnerabilities, and the unpredictable nature of unplanned outages as key factors that could challenge Eskom’s ability to sustain its streak of uninterrupted supply.
Eskom has reiterated its commitment to improving grid stability and reducing the risk of loadshedding.
However, the utility’s ability to maintain its progress will be closely watched as the country enters the energy-intensive post-holiday period.
