As South Africa enters 2025, Eskom has marked over nine consecutive months without loadshedding, an achievement attributed to the utility’s Generation Recovery Plan and structural maintenance improvements.
Eskom loadshedding: What’s the state of the power system in January 2025?
This milestone includes a significant reduction in unplanned outages and diesel usage, with operational improvements recorded across its coal-fired fleet.
The year-to-date unplanned outage average stands at 11,900MW—substantially lower than the 2024 summer base case of 13,000MW.
With a year-to-date Energy Availability Factor (EAF) of 62.37%, Eskom has made strides in enhancing grid stability.
RelatedPosts
Current demand and generation forecasts indicate Eskom’s ability to meet energy requirements, with additional capacity expected from peaking stations and reserve units.
However, despite these operational gains, experts warn that the system may still be vulnerable to demand surges, particularly as industrial activities resume after the holiday period.
Is loadshedding returning this month?
Energy analysts, including those from Cresco Advisory, have predicted that loadshedding could make a limited return in January 2025, with Stage 2 likely if demand surpasses generation capacity.
The re-emergence of loadshedding hinges on several factors, such as the reliability of the coal-fired fleet, the speed of returning units from planned maintenance, and the weather’s impact on peak electricity consumption.
In December 2024, Eskom’s Power Alert reinforced the likelihood of a loadshedding-free summer, bolstered by improved energy availability.
However, with unplanned outages hovering near critical thresholds, the margin for error remains slim.
The Electricity Regulation Amendment Act, which came into effect on 1 January 2025, is anticipated to drive structural changes within the sector, with private players expected to alleviate some strain on Eskom’s infrastructure in the long term.
Koeberg Unit 2 reconnected to the power grid
A critical development for Eskom’s grid stability is the recent synchronisation of Koeberg Nuclear Power Station’s Unit 2 to the national grid.
Following extensive upgrades under its Long-Term Operation (LTO) programme, the unit was reconnected on 31 December 2024, adding 930MW to the grid.
“While projects like the LTO programme necessitate a higher initial upfront investment, the long- term benefits including decades of affordable, low-carbon energy-make them indispensable. Koeberg exemplifies how nuclear power can align economic and environmental priorities to create a sustainable energy future.
“Through the successful execution of the LTO project, our Koeberg team has once more demonstrated the exceptional skills we have to support our country’s nuclear ambitions,” Eskom’s Group Chief Executive Dan Marokane noted in a statement.
Together, Koeberg’s Units 1 and 2 contribute 1,860MW, or approximately 5% of South Africa’s total electricity needs.
This milestone comes as the country prepares for the gradual phase-out of ageing coal-fired plants by 2030.
Eskom anticipates that Koeberg’s enhanced performance will further bolster the grid’s reliability, reducing the likelihood of power cuts.
However, with maintenance activities continuing across multiple facilities, the energy utility has urged customers to use electricity sparingly.
