Eskom recently released a statement on the latest loadshedding outlook.
Eskom extends the suspension of loadshedding for another week
On Friday, May 17, 2024, confirmed that rotational blackouts would be delayed for an additional week, marking the continuation of a period without loadshedding that has now reached 51 consecutive days.
The last time South Africa experienced such an extended period without power cuts was from 5 December 2021 to 2 February 2022.
Eskom attributes the significant improvement in the reliability of its generation fleet to the Generation Operational Recovery Plan, which commenced in March 2023.
This plan focuses on accelerating and executing planned maintenance, online preventative maintenance, major plant refurbishment, and life extension projects.
“The results are increasingly now being seen in the reduction of Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) or unplanned maintenance. Reduction in unplanned outages,” the utility noted.
What the numbers say about Eskom’s electrifying resurgence
Eskom’s recent performance data paints a promising picture of its recovery efforts.
The UCLF, which measures unplanned maintenance and outages, reduced significantly from 35.4% between 1 April 2023, and 16 May 2023, to 28.4% in the same period in 2024.
This reduction points to the increasing reliability of Eskom’s generation fleet.
Additionally, the Energy Availability Factor (EAF), which indicates the percentage of total electricity generation capacity available, improved to 60.56% year-to-date.
This marks an 8.9% increase from the previous year’s EAF of 51.8%.
The highest EAF recorded this year was 70% on Sunday, 12 May 2024, and since then, the daily EAF has been maintained between 67% and 70%.
“This serves as evidence that our generation fleet is gradually becoming more reliable,” Eskom remarked.
The decrease in unplanned outages and the successful completion of planned maintenance tasks have been critical to these improvements.
Currently, Eskom is maintaining planned maintenance at 4,334 MW, consistent with its winter maintenance schedule.
Loadshedding outlook for this winter
Eskom’s winter outlook, published on 26 April 2024, remains optimistic, with the generation performance exceeding the forecast.
The outlook anticipated unplanned outages ranging from 14,000 MW to 15,500 MW, with loadshedding limited to Stage 2.
However, the improved reliability of the generation fleet suggests that even lower stages of loadshedding, or complete suspension, might be possible.
The usage of Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs), which are typically employed during peak demand periods, has significantly decreased.
From 1 May to 16 May 2024, the OCGT load factor was just 4.76%, compared to 22.07% in the same period last year.
Eskom has not used OCGTs at all during the morning and evening peaks for 16 days within the current financial year to date.
This reduction in OCGT usage resulted in substantial cost savings, with Eskom spending R1.25 billion to produce 179.53 GWh of electricity, compared to R5.2 billion for 831.9 GWh in the previous year.
Eskom has planned to return an additional 3,900 MW of generating capacity to service by Monday, 20 May 2024.
“Eskom will provide an update next Friday or promptly communicate any significant changes as soon as they occur,” the statement read.
