Early predictions from the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) indicate a potential decline in support for the ANC in the 2024 South African elections.
2024 SA election results: CSIR releases early predictions
Millions of South Africans participated in the national and provincial elections held on Wednesday, 29 May 2024.
The CSIR has released early predictions suggesting a significant shift in the political landscape, potentially marking a downturn for the African National Congress (ANC), which has governed for the past 30 years.
According to the CSIR’s preliminary data, the ANC is currently leading but with a reduced share of the vote. The breakdown is as follows:
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- ANC: Actual turnout at 42.37%, with a predicted turnout of 41.65%.
- DA (Democratic Alliance): Actual turnout at 26.10%, with a predicted turnout of 21.62%.
- EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters): Actual turnout at 8.39%, with a predicted turnout of 8.98%.
- M.K. (uMkhonto weSizwe): Actual turnout at 7.85%, with a predicted turnout of 13.86%.
- PA (Patriotic Alliance): Actual turnout at 4.68%, with a predicted turnout of 1.89%.
These early predictions are based on a model that uses various assumptions to estimate outcomes, and they are subject to change as more results come in.
As of the latest update, 12.85% of voting districts had declared their results, providing a preliminary view of the voting patterns.
The 2024 elections are seen as a critical test for the ANC, which has been facing growing discontent over issues such as corruption, unemployment, and service delivery failures.
If the ANC’s support falls significantly, it may have to form a coalition to govern, a scenario that could reshape South African politics.
The Democratic Alliance (DA) and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) have shown strong performances, indicating a possible shift in voter allegiance.
The uMkhonto weSizwe (M.K.), backed by former President Jacob Zuma, also appears to be gaining traction among voters.
Key Implications:
- Potential Coalition Government: The ANC may need to enter into coalition agreements if it fails to secure a majority, leading to new political alliances and governance dynamics.
- Rising Influence of Opposition Parties: The DA and EFF’s substantial vote shares reflect increasing support for opposition parties, which could lead to more significant challenges to ANC policies and initiatives.
- Introduction of New Parties: The presence of new parties like M.K. suggests a diversifying political landscape, providing voters with more options and potentially diluting the traditional power base of the ANC.
- Economic and Social Policies: The outcome of these elections could impact South Africa’s economic and social policies, particularly in addressing issues such as unemployment, economic inequality, and public service delivery.
As the IEC continues to tally votes, the final results are expected to be announced by Sunday. The nation awaits to see if the early predictions hold true and what the future holds for South Africa’s political landscape.
