Eskom has announced that loadshedding remains suspended, marking a significant achievement of 128 consecutive days without power outages.
Weekend loadshedding schedule starting Friday, 2 August 2024
This includes 94 days of constant supply throughout the winter period. The last prolonged suspension of loadshedding was over four years ago, from 16 March 2020 to 9 July 2020.
Eskom’s spokesperson stated:
“This ongoing stability is a testament to the dedicated efforts of our 40,000 employees in implementing the Generation Recovery Plan and extensive maintenance. Our operational efficiency continues to surpass our winter assumptions.”
The utility has achieved an average Energy Availability Factor (EAF) of 71% over the past seven days, with 33,180MW of available generation capacity.
This is a substantial improvement from April 2023, when the average daily available generation capacity was 23,700MW.
Here’s a look at the provisional weekend loadshedding schedule starting Friday, 2 August 2024:
Date | 05:00 – 16:00 | 16:00 – 20:00 | 20:00 – 00:00 | 00:00 – 05:00 |
Fri 2 Aug 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
Sat 3 Aug 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
Sun 4 Aug 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
What is the state of the power system?
The state of the power system in South Africa has seen marked improvement.
Eskom’s Generation Recovery Plan has been effective, resulting in reduced unplanned outages and significant savings in diesel expenditure.
Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF)
The UCLF has decreased to 26.13% for the financial year to date (1 April 2024 to 1 August 2024), an improvement from 34.91% in the corresponding period last year.
This 8.8% improvement signifies fewer unexpected breakdowns in the power plants, leading to more reliable electricity supply.
Energy Availability Factor (EAF)
The EAF has increased to 63.03%, a significant improvement from 55.15% in the same period last year.
The weekly EAF rose from 57.0% at the beginning of the financial year to 70.67% from 26 July to 1 August 2024. This improvement is mainly due to fewer unplanned outages.
Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs)
Eskom’s strategic use of peaking stations, including OCGTs and pumped storage, has been crucial in managing electricity demand during peak times, particularly in the evenings.
Diesel consumption remains significantly below projected figures for this winter and much lower than the past two years.
From 1 April to 1 August 2024, Eskom’s expenditure on OCGTs was R3.39 billion, generating 495.30 GWh, approximately 73% less than the R12.76 billion spent last year over the same period for 2,124.68 GWh.
Will Eskom implement loadshedding this winter?
Given the current state of the power system and the improvements seen, it is unlikely that Eskom will implement loadshedding this winter.
The winter forecast published on 26 April 2024 anticipated unplanned outages at 15,500MW and loadshedding limited to Stage 2.
However, current unplanned outages have averaged between 9,800MW and 12,400MW since 1 April 2024, significantly lower than the forecasted figures.
For loadshedding to be implemented, there would need to be a significant and unexpected increase in unplanned outages or a substantial spike in electricity demand that exceeds the available capacity.
Eskom’s next state of the power system update is scheduled for Friday, 9 August 2024. Any significant changes will be communicated promptly.