South Africans should prepare for significant increases in fuel prices for February 2025.
Mid-month fuel price outlook for February 2025
According to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), steep under-recoveries across all fuel types signal that pump prices will need to rise to align with the higher costs of importing and distributing fuel.
- Petrol 95 ULP shows an under-recovery of R1.41 per litre, indicating a substantial price hike.
- Diesel 0.05% sulphur is under-recovered by R1.92 per litre, suggesting an even larger increase.
- Illuminating paraffin, widely used for cooking and heating, is under-recovered by R1.71 per litre, which will impact households relying on it.
Here’s a closer look at the over/under-recovery rates, as of Monday, 13 January 2025:
| Fuel type | Official | Adjustment on 27/01/2025 | Adjustment on 20/01/2025 | Adjustment on 13/01/2025 | Adjustment on 06/01/2025 |
| Petrol 95 | -R1.41 | -R0.67 | |||
| Petrol 93 | -R1.50 | -R0.73 | |||
| Diesel 0.05% | -R1.92 | -R0.69 | |||
| Diesel 0.005% | -R1.83 | -R0.69 |
Key factors driving the price increases
Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, has risen to approximately $80 per barrel as of mid-January 2025. This marks a noticeable increase from previous weeks, driven by supply concerns and geopolitical factors affecting major oil-producing regions.
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The South African rand also weakened against the US dollar, trading at around R18.97 per dollar on Tuesday morning (14/01/2025). A weaker rand makes it more expensive to import fuel, contributing significantly to the under-recoveries.
If current trends continue, motorists and businesses should prepare for noticeable fuel price increases in February 2025.
Petrol prices could rise by over R1.40 per litre, while diesel users could face increases exceeding R1.90 per litre. Households relying on illuminating paraffin for cooking and heating should also anticipate higher costs.
The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy will finalise and announce the official adjustments closer to the end of January.
What goes into the final retail price of fuel in South Africa?
Determining the final retail price of petrol in South Africa relies heavily on the rand’s performance in currency markets and oil price movements.
Using this information, the CEF can formulate BFP estimates which, in essence, offer South African importers a snapshot into the cost of buying petrol from an international refinery, transporting the product and ensuring it against possible losses at sea and on land.
However, before the retail price of petrol is finalised at petrol stations, several additional costs are included in the BFP:
Government levies
- IP tracer levy (reimbursement to the oil industry for buying IP tracer dye and injecting it into IP to curtail the mixing of IP and diesel)
- General Fuel levy (tax levied by the government)
- Slate levy (to finance the cumulative under-recovery of the industry)
- RAF levy (to compensate for people involved in road crashes and accidents)
- Petroleum products levy (reimbursement to the pipeline users for the applicable NERSA tariff on transporting fuel through the pipeline)
Additional costs
- Wholesale margin (markup to the price of a product to account for wholesaling costs)
- Service cost recoveries
- Storage, handling and delivery costs
- Distribution costs
- Dealers margin (commission to the fuel pump dealers for retail operation)
- Zone differential (applicable to inland regions)
- Customs and excise duty
Disclaimer: The petrol price forecasts provided in this article are based on speculative data and should be considered as such. The information has been sourced from the Central Energy Fund, and while we strive to present the most accurate and up-to-date information, Swisher Post does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the data. Prices can fluctuate due to a variety of factors beyond our control, including but not limited to changes in international oil prices, currency exchange rates, and government taxes. Therefore, Swisher Post shall not be held liable for any discrepancies or differences in the actual prices. Readers are advised to consult official sources for the most current petrol price information.
