Loadshedding remains suspended for the week starting Monday, 17 June 2024, amid continued improvement in the power system’s reliability and stability.
Loadshedding outlook for this week: Here’s what to expect
What is the Current State of the Power System?
As of Friday, 14 June 2024, Eskom announced that loadshedding remains suspended.
This marks the 81st consecutive day without loadshedding, which is a significant achievement considering the challenges faced by South Africa’s power grid.
The last time the country experienced such an extended suspension was from 23 July 2021 to 6 October 2021.
Eskom’s generation performance has consistently surpassed expectations for the winter season.
The current unplanned outages average around 12,000 MW, significantly lower than the anticipated 15,500 MW. This reduction has been crucial in maintaining the stability of the power supply.
What is the Likelihood of Loadshedding This Week?
Eskom’s strategic utilisation of its peaking stations, including Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs), has played a pivotal role in managing high electricity demand during morning and evening peaks.
Despite the colder weather, Eskom’s diesel usage remains below its published winter forecast and budget.
This conservative use of resources has contributed to the sustained suspension of loadshedding.
The winter forecast published on 26 April 2024 anticipated unplanned outages at 15,500 MW and loadshedding limited to Stage 2 if necessary.
However, the actual performance has been better than expected, with unplanned outages averaging 12,000 MW. The key performance highlights include:
- Reduction in Unplanned Outages: The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) decreased to 27.69% from 35.5% recorded in the same period last year, representing a 7.81% improvement.
- Planned Maintenance: The current planned maintenance stands at 4,986 MW, consistent with winter maintenance plans.
- Energy Availability Factor (EAF): The EAF increased to 61.29% from 53.7% in the same period last year, showing a significant 7.59% improvement.
Eskom has planned to return 2,290 MW of generating capacity to service by Monday, 17 June 2024, which further supports the positive outlook for the power system.
Here’s the loadshedding schedule starting Monday, 17 June 2024
Here is the official loadshedding schedule:
Date | 00:00 – 05:00 | 05:00 – 16:00 | 16:00 – 20:00 | 20:00 – 00:00 |
Mon 17 June 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
Tues 18 June 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
Wed 19 June 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
Thurs 20 June 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
Friday 21 June 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
Sat 22 June 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
Sun 23 June 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
Readers from these metros can check the latest loadshedding schedule below:
- City of Johannesburg
- City of Ekurhuleni
- City of Tshwane
- City of Cape Town
- Nelson Mandela Bay
- eThekwini
- Manguang
- Buffalo City
What is the average demand expected to be this week?
With the onset of winter, electricity demand typically rises due to heating needs. Eskom’s evening peak demand on Friday, 14 June 2024, was 30,312 MW.
This trend is expected to continue, with high demand during morning and evening peaks. Eskom’s ability to manage this demand through its strategic use of OCGTs and maintaining a high EAF will be crucial.
The OCGT usage from 1 April to 13 June 2024 has been significantly lower compared to previous years, with only 328.43 GWh produced at a cost of R2.29 billion.
This is about 74% less than the expenditure in the same period last year. The lower OCGT load factor, which was 5.42% compared to 21.12% last year, indicates more efficient resource utilization.