Eskom has announced that loadshedding will remain suspended for the week starting Monday, 12 August 2024, marking 135 days of continuous power supply.
Loadshedding outlook for this week: Here’s what to expect
Eskom confirmed that there will be no loadshedding this week, continuing a streak of 135 days of uninterrupted power supply since 26 March 2024.
This period includes 101 days during the winter season, a remarkable achievement given the previous challenges faced by the power utility.
According to Eskom, the ongoing suspension of loadshedding is a direct result of the successful implementation of the Generation Operational Recovery Plan.
This plan has significantly improved the performance of the power system, reducing the need for emergency measures like loadshedding.
The last time South Africa experienced such a prolonged suspension of loadshedding was more than four years ago, from March to July 2020.
The current streak has already surpassed that record, showing the effectiveness of Eskom’s recovery efforts.
What is the current state of the power system?
Eskom’s power system is currently in a much better state compared to previous years.
The key factor behind this improvement is the reduction in unplanned outages, known as the Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF). This metric has decreased to 25.99% for the financial year to date, down from 34.78% during the same period last year.
This represents an 8.8% improvement, which means that fewer power plants are unexpectedly going offline.
The Energy Availability Factor (EAF), which measures how much of Eskom’s power generation capacity is actually available, has also improved significantly.
Over the past seven days, the EAF has averaged 68%, with some power stations like Medupi, Majuba, Matla, Lethabo, and Kusile exceeding 70%.
This is a significant increase from previous years, where the EAF often fell below 60%.
Eskom’s operational efficiency has also benefited from a reduction in the use of Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTS), which are expensive and typically used during peak demand periods.
Between 1 April and 7 August 2024, Eskom spent R3.48 billion on OCGTS, a reduction of R9.59 billion compared to the same period last year.
This reduction in diesel expenditure has been crucial in keeping costs down while maintaining a stable power supply.
What is the likelihood of loadshedding this week?
Given the current state of the power system, it is unlikely that Eskom will need to implement loadshedding this week.
The utility’s winter forecast, published in April 2024, predicted unplanned outages up to 15,500MW and possible Stage 2 loadshedding.
However, actual unplanned outages have remained below 12,400MW, with the latest figure at 10,757MW.
For loadshedding to become necessary, there would need to be a significant increase in unplanned outages or a sudden spike in electricity demand.
Based on current performance, Eskom appears to be on track to continue avoiding loadshedding for the foreseeable future.
The next update on the state of the power system is expected on Friday, 16 August 2024.
Here’s the loadshedding schedule starting Monday, 12 August 2024
Here is the official loadshedding schedule:
| Date | 00:00 – 05:00 | 05:00 – 16:00 | 16:00 – 20:00 | 20:00 – 00:00 |
| Mon 12 Aug 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
| Tues 13 Aug 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
| Wed 14 Aug 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
| Thurs 15 Aug 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
| Friday 16 Aug 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
| Sat 17 Aug 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
| Sun 18 Aug 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
Readers from these metros can check the latest loadshedding schedule below:
- City of Johannesburg
- City of Ekurhuleni
- City of Tshwane
- City of Cape Town
- Nelson Mandela Bay
- eThekwini
- Manguang
- Buffalo City
What is the average demand expected to be this week?
The average demand for electricity this week is expected to remain consistent with recent levels.
On Friday, 9 August 2024, Eskom projected an evening peak demand of 29,139MW.
Based on this, the average demand for the week is likely to be around 29,000MW to 30,000MW, depending on weather conditions and other factors that influence electricity consumption.
Eskom’s current capacity is sufficient to meet this demand, thanks to the improved availability of its power plants and the strategic use of peaking stations like OCGTS.
As a result, the risk of loadshedding remains low, barring any unforeseen circumstances.
