Loadshedding continues to be suspended starting Monday, 1 July 2024, marking over three months of uninterrupted power supply in South Africa.
Loadshedding outlook for this week: Here’s what to expect
What is the Current State of the Power System?
Eskom has maintained a suspension of loadshedding for 93 consecutive days, thanks to improved reliability and performance of its coal generation fleet.
This period of stability is one of the longest since the suspension period from 23 July 2021 to 6 October 2021.
Current unplanned outages average 12,000MW, with recent figures as low as 10,839MW, which is significantly below the winter forecast of 15,500MW.
The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) has decreased to 27.1% for the financial year to date, a significant improvement from 35.1% recorded in the same period last year.
This reduction in unplanned outages has been critical to maintaining the suspension of loadshedding.
What is the Likelihood of Loadshedding This Week?
The likelihood of loadshedding this week remains low. Eskom’s strategic use of peaking stations, including Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs), has effectively managed high electricity demand during peak times, especially in the evenings from 17:00 to 22:00.
Diesel consumption for these turbines remains below projected figures for this winter and is significantly lower than the previous year’s usage.
Key performance highlights include:
- A reduction in unplanned outages, with the UCLF improving by 8.0% compared to the previous year.
- Sustained Energy Availability Factor (EAF) improvement, reaching 61.3% from 54.3% over the same period last year.
- Planned maintenance currently aligns with the winter strategy, with 5,566MW undergoing maintenance to ensure continued plant reliability.
Here’s the loadshedding schedule starting Monday, 1 July 2024
Here is the official loadshedding schedule:
Date | 00:00 – 05:00 | 05:00 – 16:00 | 16:00 – 20:00 | 20:00 – 00:00 |
Mon 1 July 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
Tues 2 July 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
Wed 3 July 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
Thurs 4 July 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
Friday 5 July 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
Sat 6 July 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
Sun 7 July 24 | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* | Suspended* |
Readers from these metros can check the latest loadshedding schedule below:
- City of Johannesburg
- City of Ekurhuleni
- City of Tshwane
- City of Cape Town
- Nelson Mandela Bay
- eThekwini
- Manguang
- Buffalo City
What is the average demand expected to be this week?
Eskom anticipates high electricity demand this week due to colder winter temperatures.
The projected evening peak demand for Friday, 28 June 2024, was 29,892MW. To manage this demand ahead of the week, Eskom plans to return about 3,650MW of generating capacity to service by Monday, 1 July 2024.
The Energy Availability Factor (EAF) has improved significantly, with the year-to-date average increasing to 61.3% from 54.3% last year.
This improvement is largely due to a reduction in unplanned outages, which averaged 11,793MW during the past week. The OCGT load factor has also decreased, indicating lower reliance on diesel generators compared to previous years.
Eskom will provide an update next Friday, 5 July 2024, or promptly communicate any significant changes as they occur.