The latest Basic Fuel Price (BFP) analysis indicates potential fluctuations in petrol prices for September 2024.
Story Summary:
- Analysis of the Basic Fuel Price (BFP) for August 2024.
- Potential implications for petrol prices in September 2024.
- Explanation of what the BFP is and how it affects petrol prices.
- Update on confirmed petrol price changes for August 2024.
Basic Fuel Price analysis for Tuesday, 6 August 2024
The Central Energy Fund’s (CEF) data shows a detailed breakdown of the BFP for petrol, last measured on Monday, 5 August 2024.
The BFP is crucial as it reflects the international cost of fuel, considering factors like shipping and exchange rates.
For petrol, the BFP for 95 ULP was recorded at 1,12 cents per litre, while 93 ULP and LRP stood at 1,08 cents per litre.
This data reveals an increase in over-recovery, with petrol 95 ULP at 94.517 cents per litre and petrol 93 ULP at 91.181 cents per litre.
Over-recovery suggests that the current retail price is higher than the actual cost, which could lead to a price decrease in the following month if trends continue.
What does this suggest about petrol prices in September 2024?
The over-recovery figures indicate a potential decrease in petrol prices for September 2024.
If the trend persists, South African motorists might see a reduction in the price per litre of petrol.
This potential decrease is influenced by the movement in international product prices and a stable or appreciating rand against the US dollar.
For example, the movement in international product prices for petrol 95 ULP was 90.872 cents per litre, contributing significantly to the over-recovery.
Confirmed petrol price changes for August 2024
For August 2024, the CEF announced a decrease in petrol prices.
Both 93 and 95 ULP (ULP and LRP) grades saw a reduction of 15 cents per litre.
This reduction results from a combination of lower international product prices and a stronger rand.
During the review period, the average rand/dollar exchange rate improved, leading to a decrease in the BFP by approximately 13.86 cents per litre for petrol.
This development has provided some relief to South African consumers amid fluctuating global economic conditions.
What is the Basic Fuel Price?
The Basic Fuel Price (BFP) represents the cost of petrol at international refineries, factoring in shipping to South Africa.
It includes international product prices, freight rates, insurance, and the average exchange rate.
The BFP is crucial because it directly impacts the retail price of petrol.
When the BFP increases, retail prices usually follow, and the reverse is also true.
